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Stochastic Generation of Spatially Consistent Monthly Rainfall Using SCL

Rahman Abdul A

Rainfall is the primary and most important component of any hydrological event. There is some amount of uncertainty in the future prediction of rainfall. The purpose of using SCL is the quantification of uncertainty involved in the prediction of rainfall. In the last few decades a considerable variation in the rainfall of the northern Pakistan has occurred. This might be due to the increase in temperature which is going to be threat for the water resources of Pakistan. So there is need to estimate the uncertainties involved in the estimation of the rainfall. In this paper an effort is being carried out to quantify the uncertainties in the average monthly rainfall for UIB using SCL (Stochastic Climate Library). In this paper an effort is being done to quantify the uncertainty involved in the average monthly rainfall data of rain gauge in Astor. Using the SCL the stochastic data is generated based upon the previous average monthly rainfall data of Astor from (1954 to 2000). Several statistics (annual and monthly) are computed to determine the behavior of the model and to compare them with the stochastic data produced.