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Logistic Formula in Biology and Its Application to COVID-19 in Japan

Akira Kokado,Takesi Saito

A logistic formula in biology is applied to analyze the second and third waves of COVID-19 in Japan. We follow the observation that the removed number R(t) in the SIR model behaves like the population in biology. The logistic formula for R(t) is applied to predict the peaked date of infectious number and its total removed number for each wave.

The second wave started from July 20, 2020, and peaked at Aug 17 with its total removed number 22536 ± 568. The third wave started from Oct 11, 2020, and peaked at Jan 17 with its total removed number 175165 ± 1657. These calculated values agree well with actual data.