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Differences in Predictions for Survival and Expectations for Goals of Care between Physicians and Family Surrogate Decision Makers of Chronically Critically Ill Adults

Sara L Douglas, Barbara J Daly and Amy R Lipson*

The purpose of this study was to determine the accuracy and concordance between physicians (MDs) and family surrogate decision makers (FSDMs) in predicting 3 month post-hospital patient mortality and concordance in identifying patient goals of care. A prospective cohort study was conducted in 3 intensive care units (ICUs). Two-hundred and sixtyfour FSDMs and 54 attending MDs of patients who had resided in the ICU for >3 days were enrolled in the study. Expectation for mortality was measured dichotomously and goals of care were measured using a continuous visual analog scale. A value of 50 represented equal weight placed on goals of survival and QOL. Both MDs and FSDMs had mortality predictions that were lower than actual mortality. For MDs and FSDMs, their mortality predictions were most accurate at study enrollment. Discordance between MD and FSDM goals of care ranged from 36.4% at enrollment to 55.4% 15 days later (p=0.003). Our findings of optimistic prognosis for survival are consistent with the work of others. Our high rate of discordance regarding goals of care provided support for the need to establish standard processes to assure that values of patients and families are solicited and incorporated into treatment discussions for long-stay ICU patients.